History of the World Over the Last 13,000 Years, in a Blog Post

This post was developed from the 1997 book titled Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond.  Subsequently, videos were produced based on this volume by the National Geographic Society and broadcasted by PBS in 2005.  

Jared Diamond, professor of geography and physiology at University of California Los Angeles, won a Pulitzer Prize and the Aventis Prize for Best Science Book for his theory of societal evolution described in Guns, Germs, and Steel.  We find from his book, which is summarized crudely in this post, that geography maybe the single most important factor in human history.

After studying the history of the world over the last 13,000 years, Dr. Diamond concluded that the roots of inequality and the fates of societies could be traced back ultimately to environmental and geographic factors.  The reason that some societies have progressed and others remain as hunter/gather or agrarian is not due to differences in genetics, culture, or morality, but geography.  See figure below (arrows in figure not visible but diagram flows from top to bottom with most important factor at the top).

 

Ultimate Factors

                                          East-West Axis

                                           (Geography)

                                                              

    Various Suitable Wild Animals            Easy Movement of Animals

 

                                Numerous Domesticated Plants and Animals

 

                                 Food Surplus and Storage

 

                                 Large Complex Societies

 

   Horses    Technology   Politics & writing   Epidemics

                     Guns

                     Steel

                     Ships

Proximate Factors

           

From this diagram developed in the text, we can see that the ultimate factor in determining which societies developed proximate factors of horses, technology, politics and writing, and antibodies to major epidemics was geography.  Let’s look briefly at each of these individual factors.

East-west Axis

East-west axis refers to the migration of humans, animals and vegetation.  Climate, temperature and soil conditions are more similar when moving from east to west rather than north to south.  Most domesticated animals and crops originated in the Fertile Crescent (Middle East) and migrated to the east (Asia) and to the west (Europe).

Farming developed in relatively few places independently and migrated on the same line of latitude.  Wheat, barely, sheep, and goats spread from the Fertile Crescent to Europe and Asia.

 

Various Suitable Wild Animals

Plant and animal domestication provided food surpluses, a prerequisite for civilization development.  For example, the inhabitants of the Fertile Crescent were the first to stored large quantities of wheat and barely in humidity controlled granaries.  Many of history’s greatest empires have their roots in or near this area. 

Domesticated animals provided meat, milk, fertilizers, and strength to pull plows.  Diamond counted 148 wild plant eating terrestrial mammals over 100 pounds. These animals are the best candidates for domestication.  However, only 14 of these animals have been domesticated for any length of time.  13 of the 14 domesticated animals originated in Asia, North Africa, or Europe.  Only 1 0f 14 originated elsewhere, as the Llama is indigenous to South America.

 

Large Complex Societies

Food surpluses allowed for development of societies and specializations.  Mesopotamia, Egypt, and China emerged in roughly the fourth millennium.  Large complex societies also created epidemics, politics and writing, and technology.

 

Epidemics

Large sedentary populations created the conditions for wide spread epidemics, called crowd diseases.  These diseases need large concentrated populations to sustain themselves and all major diseases have originated from animal genes.  Animal microbes are passed on to humans all the time and some of these germs can cause serious diseases to humans. 

Societies with domesticated animals have suffered from these epidemics but these populations have acquired defenses from these diseases due to the exposures.  People in societies with no or few domesticated animals have not acquired any immunizations and have been devastated, and some wiped-out, when exposed to these germs.

Major epidemics in history:   

Egypt 1150 BC Smallpox

Greece 400 BC Malaria & Mumps

Origin unclear 200 BC Leprosy

Europe 1350 Bubonic Plague

Vermont, USA 1894 Epidemic Polio

Africa 1959 AIDS

Politics and Writing

Writing developed relatively late in human history and developed separately in the Fertile Crescent, China, and Mexico.  These societies already had complex political systems, but writing allowed for record keeping and propaganda dissemination.  All societies that subsequently developed writing were influenced by these early systems.

 

Technology

Population growth fostered the development of specializations and technologies.  Freed from burdens of hunting, gathering, and farming, some members of societies could focus on creating and inventing items that could improve their lives (we referred to this as ‘engineering’ today) and could barter for food.  As an example, early homebuilders constructed sophisticated housing over 9,000 years ago.

 

Ships, Horses, Steel Swords, and Guns

Geographic advantages that resulted in productive farming and ranching led to the development of ships, steel swords, and guns.  Horses and ships led to superior mobility and colonization.  Steel swords and guns provided lethal firepower and led to decisive military victories by Europeans over Native Americans (Incas and Aztecs) and the conquerors’ germs decimated these indigenous populations.

Now most of us in real estate do not have the luxury of thinking strategically over thousands of years in terms of our investment, lending, and development decisions.  Typical investment holding periods assumptions range from one to twenty years.  Furthermore, most real estate investors and portfolio managers probably can't think too far past the next mortgage payment or fiscal quarter, let alone the next century or millennium.  However, the histories of civilizations highlight the importance of geography and demonstrate how seemingly small, small at a particular moment in time, location advantages resulted in the fall or rise of an entire society.  This of course is a very macro perspective, but any time period you evaluate (could be a single battle in a war or the effective life of a strip shopping center), you will find the importance of location, location, location.

Dr. Diamond studied history over the last 13,000 years to explain the state of current society.  What if Dr. Diamond was around to write a sequel to Guns, Germs, and Steel 13,000 years from today?  What would be the title of part II?  

I am afraid that germs would be the one constant proximate factor as the earth’s population grows and we continue to battle epidemics today (AIDS for example).  Technology would likely be included in the title but probably represented by a more contemporary form than guns or steel.  A future title might include references to ‘information’ and 'energy,' but I bet geography would still be an ultimate factor.  Just a little something to think about.